Outcome pools and payouts
Pools Markets uses pari-mutuel outcome pools. Returns are determined by the final distribution of accepted stakes, not by an odds quote locked when a position is opened.
Outcome share
For an outcome i, the displayed pool share is conceptually:
outcomeShare(i) = outcomePool(i) / sum(allOutcomePools)This number is useful for understanding current participation. It is not:
- a guaranteed probability;
- a token price;
- fixed odds;
- a promise of a specific payout.
Estimated payout
For a winning position, the conceptual distribution is:
payout = stake + stake × (distributableLosingPools / winningPool)distributableLosingPools is the losing pool amount remaining after the frozen market fee and any protocol-defined rounding. Multi-outcome markets use the same pro-rata principle: stakes in the resolved outcome share the distributable pools from all other outcomes.
An estimate changes until entries close because every new position changes an outcome pool.
Fees
Fee rules must be visible before entry and frozen with the market. A market that is voided returns principal and does not charge a market outcome fee.
Network gas and third-party wallet or swap costs, where applicable, are separate from the prediction market fee.
After settlement
After the result is final, a winning amount or void refund is payable to the account that opened the position. The position view shows whether processing is pending or complete. If processing is interrupted, a recovery action may submit the same payment again; it cannot change the result or calculate a different amount.
If automated execution is temporarily unavailable, a recovery action may allow the same deterministic payment to be triggered. It cannot change the result or payout formula.