How predictions work
A Pools Markets prediction moves through a fixed sequence. The exact question, outcomes and timing vary, but the user contract does not.
1. Open a market
Open a prediction from a supported token card, token detail page or Explore. Before entering, verify:
- the full question;
- each available outcome;
- time remaining before entries close;
- the observation or resolution rule;
- the current pool distribution;
- your estimated payout.
The short title is a summary. Open the rules when a measurement, threshold or edge case matters.
2. Choose an outcome
A market can have between 2 and 32 named outcomes. Choose exactly one outcome for each position.
The percentage beside an outcome is its current share of the outcome pools. It can change as more users enter. It is not a fixed return and should not be interpreted as a guaranteed probability.
3. Enter an amount
Positions use the native asset of the active chain. The review step should show the selected outcome, amount, current estimate and applicable fee information before submission.
Once accepted, a position is locked for that market. The current product does not promise a secondary market, sale or early exit.
4. Wait for the market to close
New entries stop at the published entry deadline. The market then waits for its observation condition and finalized evidence.
The interface may display Settling while evidence is collected, finalized and submitted. Reaching zero on a countdown must not silently restart the same market.
5. Receive a result
The result is calculated from the frozen market rules, not from a later interpretation of the title. A market resolves to one named outcome or is voided when its predefined void conditions apply.
6. Review the completed position
Winning positions are owed their principal plus their proportional share of distributable losing pools. A voided market makes principal refundable without a market fee.
The position view shows the final outcome and whether its winning amount or refund is pending or complete. Payment processing cannot change the resolved outcome or payout formula.
A simple example
Suppose a market asks whether a token will finish above a target at expiry:
- 3 ETH is in Above;
- 1 ETH is in Below;
- you contributed 1 ETH to Below;
- Below resolves as the winner.
Before fees and rounding, your 1 ETH represents the entire winning pool and receives the distributable 3 ETH losing pool in addition to principal. If another user had also entered Below, the winning distribution would be shared in proportion to each winning stake.