Market intelligence

Market intelligence helps Pools Markets identify timely questions that deterministic metrics alone may miss. It is an advisory discovery layer, not a market authority.

Deterministic foundation

The current market pipeline begins with deterministic attention, eligibility, templates, candidate construction, risk and scheduling. These stages are versioned and replayable.

Intelligence can augment that pipeline by:

• extracting structured events from approved sources;
• identifying narrative changes around an eligible asset;
• ranking already valid candidates;
• proposing parameters inside approved market templates;
• flagging ambiguity, weak evidence or duplicate questions.

Prediction intents

An intelligent component may emit a non-executable PredictionIntent. An intent references an asset, an approved primitive, structured parameters and evidence. The deterministic compiler either accepts it exactly or rejects it.

The compiler does not repair meaning. For example, a model cannot convert “before momentum fades” into a one-hour market unless the original source explicitly defines that duration.

Prohibited authority

Intelligence cannot:

• create or deploy a market directly;
• move funds or sign user transactions;
• modify a market after entry opens;
• invent a settlement source after the fact;
• declare the final outcome;
• use current position distribution to bias question selection.

Evidence, not confidence

Model confidence is not a factual source. A usable intelligence record preserves source identity, event time, retrieval time, content hash, parser or model version and source independence.

Social attention is especially manipulable. It may influence bounded discovery ranking, but it cannot independently establish a settlement result.

Availability

Intelligence runs after deterministic prefiltering and within chain-, source- and model-specific budgets. If it is unavailable, the deterministic pipeline can continue and every already-open market retains its normal lifecycle.