Outcome pools

Pools Markets is pari-mutuel. Every stake joins the pool of the outcome it backs. When the market resolves, the losing pools are shared among the winning positions in proportion to stake, after the fee. Nothing is bought from another trader, and nothing is quoted by a house.

Pool share

outcomeShare(i) = outcomePool(i) ÷ sum(all outcome pools)

This is the percentage shown beside each outcome. It describes where the money is right now. It is not a probability, not a price and not fixed odds.

Estimated payout

payout = stake + stake × (losingPoolAfterFee ÷ winningPool)
losingPoolAfterFee = losingPool × 0.97

The estimate shown before you enter assumes the pools stay as they are, with your stake added. Every later entry changes it. Rounding is always down. The fee is defined once, in Positions, payouts and fees.

Activation

A market is created on the first entry, but it only becomes a real market when three things are true before entries close: at least two different wallets have entered, at least two outcomes hold stake, and the total pool has reached the market’s minimum. If they are not all true at the deadline, the market is cancelled and every stake is returned in full with no fee.

If they are true, the market locks at the deadline, is observed, and is resolved. If the winning outcome turns out to hold no stake, the market voids and refunds.

Limits

The panel shows this market’s MIN and MAX. On Robinhood Chain and BNB Chain the contracts additionally cap exposure at 0.25 native per wallet per market, 2 per market, 5 per asset and 25 of open undecided stake protocol-wide; the last one releases as markets settle. The Solana program currently has no protocol-wide cap set.

One example, end to end

Question: Will TOKEN graduate within the next 30m?
Yes pool 0.40 ETH   No pool 0.10 ETH
You enter 0.10 ETH on No.          Yes 0.40 / No 0.20
Estimate shown: 0.10 + 0.10 × (0.40 × 0.97 ÷ 0.20) = 0.294 ETH

Entries close. TOKEN does not graduate. No wins.
Fee 0.40 × 3% = 0.012 ETH.  Distributable 0.388 ETH.
Your payout 0.10 + 0.10 × (0.388 ÷ 0.20) = 0.294 ETH, sent automatically.

If more people had entered No after you, the same 0.388 ETH would be shared over a larger No pool and your payout would be lower than the estimate you saw.